Chips and Mineral Resource
The future superpower on the global stage may be determined by advancements in AI technologies. Throughout history, different industrial revolutions have played a significant role in shaping world powers. The first industrial revolution empowered England and Europe to conquer vast territories. The second and third revolutions propelled the USA and the Western nations to dominance in the contemporary world. Now, with the fourth industrial revolution centered around AI, the question arises: Who will emerge as the leader in this technology race?
Unlike previous industrial revolutions, AI technologies are primarily driven by private technology companies. These companies heavily rely on specialized chips for training AI systems. The availability of these chips becomes a critical factor in determining a country's ability to compete in the technological race that will shape the future of global powers.
This raises the question: Which countries are capable of producing these essential chips? According to an article published in Foreign Policy last year, only a few nations possess the capability to produce them. These countries include Taiwan, South Korea, the Netherlands, Japan, and the United States. Notably, the US has already imposed restrictions on chip exports to China to impede its technological advancement in this field.
The United States and its allies currently hold the knowledge and capabilities necessary for chip manufacturing, which other countries, including China, lack to a significant extent, as far I know. This leads us to inquire about the production process and the inputs involved.
Chips require various materials, such as silicon, dopants, photoresist, etchants, and metals. Some of these materials are produced by specialized chemical companies, while others are sourced from natural metals. Even the chemical components used in chip production originate from mined resources. While countries like the USA, China, and Russia are known for mining these natural metals, they can also be found in Africa and many developing nations.
Consequently, as powerful countries strive to enhance their AI capabilities, it is natural for them to seek control over the mines supplying the essential raw materials for AI production. This parallels the measures taken to prevent nuclear proliferation by controlling access to inputs like uranium and associated knowledge.
Does this mean a new wave of colonization aimed at controlling these mines? The answer remains uncertain. However, it is likely that countries possessing abundant mineral resources will emerge as focal points for global powers in the race for dominance during the fourth industrial revolution. And perhaps, the conflicts and the spread of terrorist groups in the Middle East and Africa, along with the state of political instability, indicate that the global competition between major powers has shifted towards controlling those mineral resources or, at the very least, strengthening their own countries and weakening others in the competition to shape the new world order.
